While the government has plans to hold spectrum auctions this year, it's highly unlikely that remaining telcos would be able to buy spectrum as much as Vodafone Idea currently holds. Vodafone Idea has 923 MHz (megahertz) of spectrum, the highest amongst all operators, to serve its large subscriber base. Experts say that Jio's 553 MHz and Airtel's 866 MHz of spectrum holding would be insufficient to cater to extra (over) 300 million subs. "It's also clear that Airtel, which is also reeling under the Rs 35,586-crore AGR burden, cannot further invest in network expansion to serve the acquired subs. It would be financially and operationally challenging for the remaining operators to put up more towers in a short span of time," says a telecom consultant.
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Let's assume that if the Vodafone Idea goes down, its user base of 336.25 million would have to migrate to either of the remaining telcos - Airtel, Reliance Jio or BSNL/MTNL. It's unlikely that the network of these operators can serve additional 336 million subs. In a recent report, Bank of America Merrill Lynch has said that the the telcos networks of Bharti and Jio may not withstand load of 300 million users. These operators would require additional investment in network expansion, and more spectrum almost immediately. Of course, there will be some SIM consolidation (which means multi-SIM subs would discard some SIMs), but the remaining telcos cannot deny new customers, and in the absence of fresh investments, the overall quality of telecom services would deteriorate for everyone.
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Let's assume that if the Vodafone Idea goes down, its user base of 336.25 million would have to migrate to either of the remaining telcos - Airtel, Reliance Jio or BSNL/MTNL. It's unlikely that the network of these operators can serve additional 336 million subs. In a recent report, Bank of America Merrill Lynch has said that the the telcos networks of Bharti and Jio may not withstand load of 300 million users. These operators would require additional investment in network expansion, and more spectrum almost immediately. Of course, there will be some SIM consolidation (which means multi-SIM subs would discard some SIMs), but the remaining telcos cannot deny new customers, and in the absence of fresh investments, the overall quality of telecom services would deteriorate for everyone.
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